Bitcoin (BTC) is currently moving between tight boundaries. Since the beginning of December, the queen of cryptocurrencies has been oscillating between 16,800 and 17,400 dollars. Bitcoin remains “very stable” after the big selloff in early November (in the wake of the FTX scandal) and “seems to be in trouble at this stage,” said Simon Peters, market analyst at eToro. As 2022 approaches, financial institutions are currently engaged in the traditional exercise of developing forecasts for the coming year. Some institutions, such as Standard Chartered or Saxo Bank, even mention scenarios whose probability is considered underestimated by investors (even if it does not correspond to a central scenario, i.e. the scenario considered more likely) .
In one of the “forecasts” in the “Financial Market Surprises of 2023” note, Standard Chartered sees bitcoin possibly falling to $5,000 next year, while gold (to which bitcoin is often compared, is considered a in “digital gold”, no. because it can be printed forever, unlike the big currencies of the planet) the letters of nobility will be withdrawn and will fly by about 30%…
ALSO READ
The 10 Most Asked Questions About Bitcoin (and Capital Answers)
Be careful though. “These types of predictions and price guides should be made with caution,” eToro said. Some observers believe that gold has no shortage of arguments that will eventually fly, perhaps as early as 2023, but its path will ultimately depend on inflation rates and expectations, with uncertain prospects. Not to mention the possible new geopolitical shock. As for bitcoin, it should be noted that the fall in price since the historical peak is already large.
>> Buy and sell your investments (stock market, cryptocurrency, gold, etc.) at the right time thanks to Momentum, Capital’s newsletter about technical analysis. And now, with the promo code CAPITAL30J, enjoy a free trial month.
And from the perspective of technical analysis, several major chart (or mathematical) supports between the current price level and $5,000 will likely favor a medium-term low, such as 13,650-13,764. (peak in 2019), 12,200-12,520 dollars (important length. -term horizontal support) or even 8,492-10,230 dollars (beam of major graphic and mathematical supports), graphic level that is likely to move the many buyers, as we recently mentioned in Momentum and 21Millions, Capital’s stock market and premium cryptocurrency newsletter.
>> Discover 21 million, Capital’s cryptocurrency newsletter. Advice and analysis of weekly prices to support you in your investments. Now, using the promo code CAPITAL30J, enjoy a free trial month.
We can also think in terms of drawdown (the maximum fall in price from a high point). In this regard, the levels to watch for bitcoin are in the drawdown of -85% since the historical record, i.e. a point of falling to 11,000 dollars, recently argued analyst Joris Zanna (asked by Capital ), who noted that historically, this drawdown. that level of -85% is “almost systematically repeated”.
Bitcoin has no real fundamental value, but the cost of mining in the United States “is estimated at around 15,000 dollars”, recently noted John Plassard, investment specialist at Mirabaud Banque. This consideration and the elements mentioned above should provide a certain amount of support for bitcoin, which may struggle to fall below $5,000, although no scenario can be completely ruled out…
Declaration of author interests