After last week’s latest macroeconomic events, Bitcoin and Ethereum are off the hook. In effect, they were able to strengthen themselves with their individual support. But from there to stave off the threat of a wider wave of correction until the end of the year or early next year, we need to restore investor confidence as soon as possible.
Given that the failure of FTX could delay the fall of other risky asset classes, there is nothing less certain that the attempted rebound of the first digital currencies will lead to a favorable result. Not to mention that the current uncertainty in the financial markets will never calm down.
In an environment that encourages being risk-off that risk oflet’s review the latest technical analysis of BTC and ETH prices and the various possible scenarios in the near future.
Bitcoin weekly units – Crossing the falling line of sight?
Thanks to the fall of the dollar against the yuan below the $7 mark at the start of the week, Bitcoin is about to return above the lower bearrun line. since its last ATH in November 2021. With technical indicators not supposed to say their last word. And especially, the MACD, which at the moment, refuses to cross under the signal of weekly units.
However, caution remains in order, otherwise the downward line crossing may no longer be available as was the case more than three weeks ago. Especially since Cryptocurrency investors should always consider Weinstein’s Phase 4. To be precise, the 30-week moving average (MM30 weekly) continues to dip towards the South.
In the event that the $16,000 support remains better than expected, BTC prices may return to the $20,000 resistance. But it is likely that a pullback below the 2017 ATH will be a real brake on the rebound if the rules of technical analysis are respected in the context of a bear market.
Conversely, a third wave of Bitcoin bear market correction will be even more compelling. Thus, an immediate or delayed break of $16,000 would send prices towards the $12,000 support. And if this worst-case scenario turns out to be good, the real question is whether buyers have resisted enough.
Ethereum weekly units – Crossing the downward line of sight?
Ethereum can mimic Bitcoin in possibly reaching its falling bearrun line since its last ATH in November 2021. Except that the bounce test is stronger. In this sense, prices are approaching resistance at $1400 and the weekly 30-MA. And at the same time, the MACD and the RSI continue their path towards the zero line and the neutral zone at 50 respectively.
But like the beginning of November, the potential crossing of the descending line can also be a decoy. Especially since if ETH prices cross beyond the weekly 30MM, which itself remains in a bearish momentum, the breakout above $1400 will be a false buy signal. And to prevent cryptocurrency investors from being spoiled, it is wise to wait for a neutral evolution (or horizontal slope) in the weekly 30MM.
If the rebound continues, Ethereum may return to contact $1400. better yet, buyers can smile again before the end of the $1700 year. On the one hand, this has the merit of easing the downward pressure of recent weeks. But on the other hand, this level has caused serious problems with three consecutive failures since last summer. In short, if this scenario is successful, many investors will not complain.
On the contrary, if ETH fails to rally to the nearest resistances, we risk reconnecting with the support of $1000, not far from the lows of the year. With blue fear that bears want to mark the move by triple digit price towards $700 support. Historically the third correction wave will form.
BTC and ETH – The end of their bear markets is far away!
Like it or not, Bitcoin and Ethereum’s attempts to rebound from their last ATHs in November 2021 have ended poorly so far. Which would prove that their bear markets would not have reached a stage of surrender or despair. So it is likely that cryptocurrencies will experience a more destructive wave of correction than the previous one. At this time, a difference between good and bad projects will be proven legitimate for the benefit of the industry.
The fact that financial conditions may not ease any time soon will promote the hibernation of Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is not only the FED that will consider extending its money, despite the hope of an economy in the United States. But the US central bank’s credibility will be sorely tested. Because when investors show clarity, a return to accommodative monetary policy will push inflation.
Since the FED does not want to tarnish its reputation vis-à-vis the financial markets, we doubt it will give ground. In which case, the dollar against the major currencies will recover the height in a context full of uncertainty. And indeed, the asset classes most sensitive to liquidity will remain under pressure. This is why Bitcoin and Ethereum may experience new headwinds despite the several billion market capitalizations that have already increased in more than a year.
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